Helene grew to hurricane strength Wednesday morning, and was predicted to rapidly intensify to a dangerous Category 3 storm on approach to Florida’s Gulf Coast on Thursday. Forecasters warned that the powerful and unusually large storm could bring severe impacts to not only Florida but also many other parts of the southeast United States as it moves swiftly inland through Friday.
The National Hurricane Center warned of a “life-threatening” storm surge – or rise in ocean water above normally dry land – in Florida’s Big Bend area and along the entire west coast of the peninsula. The agency is calling for a surge of up to 10 to 15 feet of inundation in the Big Bend area, where the storm is forecast to make landfall Thursday evening, while Tampa Bay could see a 5 to 8 foot storm surge.
Damaging to destructive winds will also accompany Helene’s arrival with gusts over 115 mph probable in the eyewall, the ring of violent thunderstorms surrounding the storm center. Several major Florida cities, such as Tampa, Orlando, Ocala and Jacksonville, could see gusts of 65 to 80 mph and even southern parts of the peninsula are in line for tropical storm-force winds.
Hurricane warnings are in effect from just north of Tampa to southeast of Panama City, Fla. Storm surge warnings cover the Florida Gulf Coast from the southern tip of the Everglades to near Apalachicola in the Panhandle.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) declared a state of emergency in 61 of the state’s 67 counties ahead of the storm; only six counties in southeast Florida were not included. Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for parts or all of at least 12 coastal counties between the Panhandle and the peninsula’s west coast. Florida State University in Tallahassee said it will close its campus through Sunday, among other school closures in the state.
Helene will be an exceptionally large storm with a broad wind field. In fact, its size could be in the top 10 percent of hurricanes observed in the region according to the Hurricane Center. That means its surge and wind impacts will be both greater and more wide-reaching than typical. Tropical-force winds could extend more than 200 miles from the center, and tropical storm warnings even extend into Miami, far from where Helene will come ashore. Tropical storm watches also stretch into coastal Georgia and South Carolina.
Helene is forecast to barrel inland at high speeds, allowing severe winds to penetrate much farther inland than typical for a hurricane across eastern Georgia. It could be Georgia’s most serious weather event in quite a while, with gusts of 80 to 90 mph possible over southeastern portions of the state.
Downed trees and power outages will probably be widespread in both northern Florida and Georgia.
Flooding rains will also affect portions of the Southeast and Tennessee Valleys. The southern Appalachians, where the National Weather Service has declared a rare “high risk” of excessive rainfall, could see 10 to 15 inches. “This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding,” the Hurricane Center wrote. “Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians.”
In addition to probably becoming the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year, Helene is also poised to become the sixth hurricane to hit Florida since 2022 and potentially the ninth major hurricane, rated Category 3 or higher, to make landfall along the Gulf Coast since 2016.
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Where is the storm now and what’s the outlook into Thursday?
As of 11 a.m. Eastern time, the center of Helene was 500 miles south-southwest of Tampa. It winds had increased to 80 mph – a 35 mph leap in 24 hours – making it a Category 1 hurricane. Motion was to the northwest at 10 mph. The storm, 85 miles north-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, recently produced gusts of 55 to 61 mph on Isla Mujeres.
The storm’s center is on a path to stay over the Yucatán Channel, or the open waters between Cancún and Cuba. Remaining over the warm waters should allow for unimpeded strengthening.
Into Thursday, gusty winds and downpours will surge north over the Florida Peninsula and toward the Panhandle. The wind will become more biting throughout the day, especially in northern Florida. The surge will increase by late morning, with conditions deteriorating more rapidly in the early afternoon. When the eyewall hits the Big Bend during the afternoon or evening, destructive winds will plow ashore.
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Where and when will the storm make landfall and how strong will it be?
The storm is most likely to make landfall in the Florida Big Bend sometime late Thursday. While there remains an outside chance of a small path deviation west or east, which could pose more direct threats to the eastern Panhandle or areas closer to Tampa, confidence is reasonably high in the projected landfall location.
Helene still has another roughly 30 to 36 hours over the exceptionally warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which contain near-record oceanic heat content – or hurricane fuel. Rapid intensification could ensue right until the point of landfall. That’s why a Category 3 is likely, and a Category 4 landfall cannot be ruled out.
The Hurricane Center predicts Helene will make landfall with winds of 125 mph, but said “upward adjustments to the forecast intensity could be required in subsequent advisories if Helene rapidly intensifies more than forecast.”
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What impacts should Florida expect?
— Winds: Within the eyewall, gusts over 115 mph are possible within a few miles of the coastline. The National Weather Service will probably issue extreme wind warnings, or special alerts for the immediate onset of tornado-like wind speeds found in the eyewall. Outside the eyewall, gusts of 75 to 95 mph are still probable across extreme northern Florida and central/eastern parts of the Panhandle. Gusts of 60 to 80 mph are likely in Tampa, Orlando, Ocala and Jacksonville.
— Surge: The greatest surge will be found where onshore winds are the strongest – so near the storm’s core and to the immediate north and east. That’s where 10 to 15 feet of water will be pushed ashore, inundating ordinarily-dry ground. A 5- to 8-foot surge is probable in Tampa Bay, potentially bringing the worst inundation to the area since the 1980s. The storm surge will arrive abruptly and build quickly because of Helene’s exceptional forward speed, which could be close to record-setting.
— Flooding rains: A general 4 to 8 inches of rain, with some 10- to 12-inch totals, is expected. Rainfall amounts will be tempered by Helene’s swift forward speed. Still, inland flooding is possible in spots.
— Tornadoes: An isolated tornado is possible Thursday across the Peninsula.
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What impacts should the southeast, southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley expect?
— Winds: A serious windstorm is possible in Georgia, especially in the south. This may be among the greatest wind threat for years in southeast Georgia. Widespread winds gusting 75 to perhaps 90 mph are possible in southeast Georgia, with gusts up to 80 mph possible for the remainder of eastern Georgia. There’s even a chance the winds hold together into southwest South Carolina. Otherwise, the remainder of Georgia and South Carolina could see gusts over 60 mph. Tropical storm-force winds are probable elsewhere in the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley.
— Flooding: There is a high risk for flash flooding and excessive rainfall in the southern Appalachians, particularly in the mountains of northeast Georgia, northwest South Carolina and southwest North Carolina. That’s where terrain may focus rainfall and lead to totals over 10 inches. Otherwise, widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches are probable throughout much of Georgia, South Carolina, eastern Alabama, the Cumberland Plateau and Middle Tennessee. Atlanta could see half a foot or more of rain.
— Tornadoes: Helene’s spin will probably result in a few tornadoes in the system’s spiral rain bands Thursday, particularly in the northern half of the Florida Peninsula, eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina. All those regions are included in a Level 2 out of 5 risk of severe weather drawn by the Storm Prediction Center, but a Level 3 risk is up for Savannah, Ga., and surrounding areas.
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