Donald Trump’s proposed large-scale deportation plan, titled “Operation Aurora,” is moving closer to becoming a reality, raising concerns among immigrant advocacy organizations that millions of families could face forced removal from the U.S.
This mass deportation initiative, affecting those without legal status, was a cornerstone of the president-elect’s campaign, which touted November 5 as “liberation day” from previous immigration policies.
Pre-election polls indicated general support for deportation policies among some voters.
The American Immigration Council has projected that implementing Trump’s plan, potentially affecting 11-14 million individuals, would come with an estimated cost of over $315 billion.
Although Trump can’t initiate these actions until he takes office on January 20, 2025, immigrant rights groups, including the ACLU, have been strategizing for months in anticipation and are committed to challenging this policy in court. “That could take the form of an executive order,” noted Noreen Shah, the ACLU’s director of government affairs. “I think that he would quickly try to sow fear and a sense of impending chaos in the American public.”
During his previous term, Trump faced several lawsuits, including those led by the ACLU, targeting his policies on family separations and the “Remain in Mexico” initiative. Many of these cases resulted in halted programs, and Shah stated that similar legal actions are already in preparation.
An imminent escalation
Trump’s large-scale deportation policy has been a defining feature of the Republican platform this election, though it has also attracted notable opposition.
Latino leaders have voiced concerns that Trump’s plan could trigger renewed family separations, with estimates suggesting that one in three Latino families could be affected by this policy.
Advocacy group FWD.us expressed worries about the human and social toll of the crackdown, warning that many families would be “ripped apart.” Karoline Leavitt, a Trump campaign spokesperson, responded to concerns by stating that Trump would “make provisions for mixed status families.” She elaborated, “He will restore his effective immigration policies, implement brand new crackdowns that will send shockwaves to all the world’s criminal smugglers, and marshal every federal and state power necessary to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history.”
Who faces deportation?
The American Immigration Council’s data shows that Mexican nationals are the largest group of undocumented immigrants in the U.S., numbering over 4.7 million. Deporting this group alone is estimated to cost $7.3 billion.
Yet Mexicans aren’t the only potential targets. Migrants from Central and South America, as well as Canada, Nigeria, and more than 75 other countries, could also face deportation under Trump’s plan.
The states expected to be most affected are California, home to around 2.1 million undocumented migrants, Texas with 1.8 million, and Florida with just over 1 million. Many other states have tens of thousands of undocumented residents as well.
Newsweek previously highlighted that various industries could be hit hard by the deportations, as many rely heavily on migrant workers. Farmers, in particular, are concerned about losing a workforce essential to their businesses, while the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) warns of potential economic impacts, with fewer U.S.-born workers entering the labor market.
“If you look over the past five years, without immigrants and their children, there would have been no labor force growth in the United States,” said Stuart Anderson, NFAP’s executive director. “And that means that without labor force growth, it’s very difficult for a country to have economic growth, and without economic growth, living standards in a country stagnate and potentially even decline.”
The “Alien Enemies Act” as a tool
The ACLU argues that Trump may employ the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to push forward his deportation plans.
Originally enacted when the U.S. anticipated conflict with France, the Alien Enemies Act grants authority to deport noncitizens during wartime or an invasion. The law has been historically applied, including during the War of 1812 and World Wars I and II.
Trump and his allies have framed the influx of illegal immigrants as an “invasion,” potentially leveraging this law. “The Trump campaign, Trump surrogates, have talked about wanting to go after people based on their nationality,” said Shah. “That’s what the Alien Enemies Act sets up.” Shah added that even legally present individuals who lack full citizenship might be at risk, calling this approach “potentially unprecedented and potentially really far-reaching.”
Eric Ruark of NumbersUSA, an immigration reform advocacy group, stated that this approach reflects public demand. “Trump promised to reestablish the rule of law, both at the border and in the interior of the country,” Ruark said. He added that this resonated with voters “appalled by the Biden-Harris administration’s open border policies.”
Looking ahead to January
Advocacy groups are poised to counter Trump’s deportation plans in court. “I’ve sued every president since George W. Bush, including Presidents Obama and Biden. We have won cases before judges of all stripes, including those appointed by President-elect Trump,” said Karen Tumlin, founder of the Justice Action Center. She issued a statement directed at the incoming administration: “We will see you in court.”
Some groups fear that the anti-immigrant rhetoric could embolden individuals to take matters into their own hands, potentially before Trump assumes office. Certain communities have already reported a rise in harassment and intimidation, said Shah.
The ACLU is urging state and local governments to take proactive measures before the inauguration, emphasizing they have the power to protect residents. Shah explained that jurisdictions could implement policies similar to those used in emergencies to protect individuals with established lives in the U.S.
“They should prepare for mass deportations because those will wreak havoc on the communities,” Shah stated. “It will mean kids who go to school and their parents are gone and not there to pick them up at the end of the day. It could mean that hospitals become places that people are worried about accessing care, and when they go to access care, they have to worry about ICE agents or Border Patrol agents waiting outside their door.”
{Matzav.com}