Negotiations for a ceasefire and a possible hostage exchange deal between Israel and Hamas were moving forward seriously on Tuesday, with officials from all parties and the mediators expressing that the two sides were nearing a historic agreement to end the 15-month-long conflict. Multiple reports have detailed the possible content of the deal.
Qatar, one of the key mediators, announced that on Monday it had presented both Israel and Hamas with a “final” draft of the deal. Israel’s Channel 12 news reported on Monday that Israel considered the agreement largely acceptable, and Israeli officials were awaiting Hamas’s response.
According to a report from the Associated Press, Hamas has also accepted the deal, citing two officials involved in the talks. However, CNN later reported that an Egyptian official claimed that Qatar, Egypt, and the United States had not yet received an official response from Hamas.
Nonetheless, Hamas acknowledged that the negotiations had entered their “final stage” and confirmed that it had consulted with other Palestinian factions, sharing details of the progress made.
Some of the hostages are being held by other militant groups in Gaza, including the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. On Tuesday evening, it was reported that this group had sent a delegation to Doha to take part in talks concerning the final details of the deal.
Saudi news outlet Al-Hadath reported on Tuesday evening that Hamas had begun grouping the hostages in preparation for their anticipated release.
Qatar stated that the two sides were now at the “closest point” to finalizing the deal, while its foreign ministry emphasized that while the talks were in the “final stages,” caution was still needed. “Until there is an announcement… we shouldn’t be over-excited about what’s happening right now,” they said.
A spokesman for Qatar’s foreign ministry, Majed al-Ansari, added that most of the key obstacles had been resolved, although he refrained from giving further specifics.
A Palestinian source close to the discussions, quoted by Reuters, said the deal might be finalized on Tuesday, provided “all goes well.” While officials have been optimistic before, the deal has not yet been reached, with hopes that it can be concluded before the January 20 inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, whose Middle East envoy is participating in the negotiations.
Hamas and other Gazan militant groups are believed to be holding 98 hostages, including the remains of at least 36 people confirmed dead by Israel.
In the first phase of the agreement, which is based on a framework put forth by US President Joe Biden and approved by the UN Security Council, 33 hostages would be gradually released over a six-week period. This includes women, children, adults over 50, and those severely ill or injured.
Israel believes that most of the 33 hostages are alive, but some may be dead.
In exchange, Israel would release hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners, with BBC estimating that 1,000 prisoners would be included, about 190 of whom have served sentences of 15 years or more for terrorist acts.
Israeli diplomatic officials said on Monday that high-profile “murderer” terrorists would not be released to the West Bank under this deal, and anyone involved in the October 7, 2023 Hamas assault would not be freed. Unconfirmed reports suggested that these “murderer” terrorists would be sent either to Gaza, or possibly to Egypt, Turkey, or Qatar, instead of returning to the West Bank.
The Associated Press reported that it had obtained a draft copy of the proposed agreement, which was later confirmed by both an Egyptian and a Hamas official.
According to the draft, five female Israeli soldiers would be included in the first batch of 33 hostages, each one being released in exchange for 50 Palestinian security prisoners, including 30 convicted terrorists who are serving life sentences.
During this 42-day first phase, Israeli forces would withdraw from population centers in Gaza, Palestinians would be permitted to return to their homes in northern Gaza, and humanitarian aid would surge, with approximately 600 trucks entering Gaza each day, according to the Associated Press.
BBC reported that, according to a Palestinian official, the agreement would start with the release of three hostages on the first day, after which Israeli forces would begin withdrawing from populated areas of Gaza.
Channel 12 reported that these initial three hostages would be civilian women, and that each subsequent week would see the release of more hostages, starting with female civilians, followed by children like Ariel Bibas, 5, and Kfir Bibas, nearly 2. Hamas had initially claimed that they and their mother Shiri had been killed in an Israeli airstrike. The IDF has been investigating and says it has not confirmed that they are dead.
The next group to be released, according to Channel 12, would include female soldiers, followed by the elderly and those who are seriously ill.
Israel is expected to retain control of the Philadelphi Corridor, a strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt, throughout the first phase of the deal, despite Hamas’s initial demand for an immediate Israeli withdrawal.
Israel would, however, pull out from the Netzarim Corridor, a region in central Gaza, where it had sought a mechanism to search for arms as Palestinians returned to the northern part of the territory.
According to BBC, a week into the ceasefire, Israel will allow displaced Gazans in the south to begin returning to the north, but only on foot via the coastal road. Vehicles and trucks will be able to cross through a passage near Salah a-Din Road, where a Qatari-Egyptian technical security team will operate an X-ray machine.
Israeli diplomatic officials stated that there would be unspecified “security arrangements” for Palestinian civilians returning to northern Gaza from the south.
They also emphasized that Israel would not fully withdraw from Gaza until its war objectives are met, including the return of all hostages.
BBC further reported that the IDF would maintain an 800-meter buffer zone along Gaza’s eastern and northern borders during the first phase.
In the second phase, Hamas would release the remaining living captives — all non-wounded adult males under the age of 50 whom Hamas considers “soldiers” — in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
Hamas has indicated that it will not release the remaining hostages without a halt to the war and full Israeli withdrawal, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously vowed to continue military operations until Hamas’s military capabilities are destroyed.
If an alternative government for Gaza is not established during these talks, it would leave Hamas in charge of the territory.
In the third phase, the bodies of the remaining hostages would be returned in exchange for a multi-year reconstruction plan for Gaza under international supervision.
Negotiations for the later phases will begin on day 16 of the ceasefire, but resolving the details is still proving difficult. The deal does not guarantee that the ceasefire will be maintained until the entire agreement is implemented, leaving the possibility for Israel to resume military actions after the first phase.
The three mediators — Qatar, Egypt, and the United States — have provided Hamas with verbal guarantees that the talks will continue and that they will push for the completion of the second and third phases before the first phase concludes, as reported by an Egyptian official.
An unnamed senior Arab diplomat told The Times of Israel that the three-phase hostage deal is largely similar to the proposal Israel presented last May.
“A deal could have been reached much earlier, but both sides led to talks falling apart at various times,” the diplomat explained.
{Matzav.com Israel}