TORONTO – Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Sunday called a snap federal election, seeking to capitalize on momentum that has his Liberals resurgent. The campaign is likely to come down to one question: Who can best handle President Donald Trump and the threat he poses to Canada?
Carney requested that the governor general dissolve Parliament, which was to begin on Monday, and set elections for April 28. By law, an election had to be held by Oct. 20, but a prime minister may request Parliament’s dissolution at any time.
A former central banker and political rookie, Carney, 60, won the Liberal leadership this month and was sworn in as prime minister on March 14. The election will pit him against Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, 45, a populist firebrand who until recently held a commanding lead in the polls.
The campaign follows domestic political upheaval. In January, Justin Trudeau – whose approval ratings had long been careening – announced he would step down as Liberal leader and prime minister, amid a caucus mutiny set in motion by the abrupt resignation of his deputy prime minister from his cabinet.
It also comes at a time of great anxiety here as Canada’s bond with the United States, a NATO ally and its largest trading partner, is rupturing – with profound consequences for the country’s economy, society and place in the world.
Trump has levied and threatened tariffs on Canadian goods that could plunge Canada’s economy into a recession. He has vowed to use “economic force” to annex Canada and mused repeatedly about redrawing the U.S.-Canada border.
His actions have infuriated Canadians – and upended their politics.
Before Trudeau’s resignation and Trump’s return, the Liberals were headed for a potentially historic trouncing and had trailed the Conservatives for more than a year. Since then, in a rapid swing that pollsters say has few parallels here, the Conservatives’ 20-point-plus lead has vanished, and the race is competitive. Some polls show the Liberals ahead.
“Prior to January, there was a story: There was a villain, and that villain was Justin Trudeau, and the hero was Pierre Poilievre,” said David Coletto, chair of pollster Abacus Data. “Now, the villain in most Canadians’ minds is Donald Trump, but we’re still figuring out who the hero will be.”
Carney, a former Goldman Sachs banker, drew praise for his leadership of the Bank of Canada during the global financial crisis and the Bank of England during Brexit. He is seeking to cast himself as the unflappable, experienced crisis manager that Canada needs at one of the most turbulent moments in its modern history.
Since his swearing in as prime minister, he has traveled to Britain and France to deepen ties with “reliable allies” and he has scrapped several Trudeau government’s policies, including a consumer carbon tax.
Carney, an ex-chair of Brookfield Asset Management, placed his assets in a blind trust after the leadership vote, and has faced scrutiny about what those assets were before they were divested. He has bristled at the questions, telling a reporter who pressed him about possible conflicts of interest to “look inside yourself.”
“I’m complying with all the rules,” he said last week.
The prime minister supported dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs during the Liberal leadership campaign and pledged to keep the levies in place “until the Americans show us respect.” But last week he said there is “a limit” to such reprisals because Canada’s economy is smaller than its neighbor’s.
While he is known in the world of finance, Carney remains an undefined figure to many Canadians and has no experience in elected politics. His stumbles in speaking French could be a liability. He is not considered to be a stirring speaker and has never been through the wringer of a federal election, where he will square off against combative opponents.
“To use a sports analogy, the leadership race was basically the warm-up and the general election is the playoffs,” Coletto said. “There’s been no regular season for Mark Carney.”
In résumé and style, Poilievre presents a stark contrast.
Poilievre is a lifelong politician. He was first elected to Parliament 20 years ago and rose to prominence as a smarmy attack dog in Question Period. He became party leader in 2022, vowing to fight “gatekeepers” and championing the anti-government “Freedom Convoy” blockades.
He gained support by zeroing in on post-pandemic inflation, grocery prices that are forcing middle-class families to visit food banks and high housing costs that have left many millennials frustrated – laying the blame, fairly or not, at Trudeau’s feet.
He uses catchy slogans: “Ax the [carbon] tax, build the homes, fix the budget, stop the crime.” And he has often attacked reporters, announcing last week that he will block them from traveling on his campaign plane and bus.
Analysts say Poilievre has not adapted well to the changes wrought by Trump’s return, Trudeau’s resignation and Carney’s ascendance. As Trump’s attacks animate a rally-around-the-flag moment, Poilievre’s message – that “Canada is broken” – no longer resonates, and his efforts to slam Carney as “just like Justin” aren’t sticking.
“They need to pivot big time because the question isn’t Trudeau anymore,” said Lori Turnbull, chair of the public and international affairs department at Dalhousie University.
Poilievre also supports retaliatory tariffs. At a “Canada First” rally last month, he vowed to “bear any burden and pay any price to protect our sovereignty and independence.”
The Liberals have cast Poilievre’s party as “wannabe MAGA maple syrup Conservatives,” rolling out ads that cut between Trump and Poilievre using identical language. Several people close to Trump and far-right figures in the United States, including Elon Musk and Alex Jones, have backed Poilievre.
One challenge for the Conservative leader, analysts said, is that while mainstream voters here do not support the president, there is a faction of Conservative voters who do, and talking tough on Trump could alienate them.
In a break with the tradition of U.S. presidents congratulating new Canadian prime ministers, Trump has not issued a statement about Carney. But he has weighed in on Canada’s domestic politics several times, offering contradictory messages.
In January, he said on “The Hugh Hewitt Show” that it would be “very good” if Poilievre won because their views are “more aligned.” Pressed last week on how his threats against Canada are resurrecting the Liberals, he told Fox News that Poilievre is “stupidly no friend of mine.”
“I think it’s easier to deal, actually, with a liberal,” Trump said, “and maybe they’re going to win, but I don’t really care.”
Canadians do not vote directly for prime minister. Instead, voters in each of the 343 electoral districts, known as ridings, vote for a member of Parliament. If a party wins a majority of the seats, it forms the government and its leader is prime minister. In a minority government, parties must rely on opposition support to stay in power.
Coletto said Canadians are looking for a leader to bring “stability” in a Trump-fueled storm.
“That means this election will be less about public policy and more about character,” he said.
(c) 2025, The Washington Post · Amanda Coletta
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