Multiple intelligence and security contacts at the highest echelons in both the United States and Israel have stated that they now believe only around 20 of the 251 hostages seized alive by Hamas on October 7, 2023, are still living.
A U.S. government official revealed that 20 is the “working number” of those presumed alive, based on ongoing talks taking place in Qatar between Israel and Hamas.
That estimate of 20 covers only civilians and female Israeli soldiers who were captured.
“If the number included Israeli male soldiers, it could go higher,” one senior Israeli source told Newsmax, but added that any such increase would be minimal.
Some public sources, however, suggest that the remaining number of hostages could be nearer to 40.
Neither the Israeli Embassy in Washington nor the Israel Defense Forces would validate the reported figures.
“We have no information to share on this matter at the moment,” said Einav Hadari, a spokesperson for the Embassy of Israel.
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner, spokesperson for the IDF, also declined to verify or contradict the estimates concerning how many captives might still be alive.
President-elect Donald Trump’s transition staff has been made aware of the count of known survivors, and his national security team has made the situation a significant concern. According to a transition source, Trump has had at least three calls with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recent weeks.
Trump has pledged severe and lethal repercussions unless American citizens held by Hamas are freed.
At a press event on Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago, Trump declared that “all hell will break out in the Middle East” if the captives aren’t released by January 20, the date of his inauguration.
“And it will not be good for Hamas and it will not be good, frankly, for anyone,” Trump continued. “We want to get back those hostages for Israel and for us.”
On October 7, 2023, Hamas abducted 251 individuals—Israelis, foreigners, and soldiers—from Israeli territory and transported them to the Gaza Strip.
More than 100 of the prisoners were freed under a ceasefire agreement that concluded in December 2023.
Officially, Israeli officials report that up to 100 of the initial hostages are potentially alive, while 36 are thought to have been killed.
Behind closed doors, however, the accepted figure is much lower than 100.
“I have heard a wide array of accounts concerning the alleged count of live hostages, ranging from around 30 to well over 60,” said Irina Tsukerman, an analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.
“Part of the reason is that Hamas has been deliberately vague and misleading, depending on the direction of the talks. And part of the reason is that, apparently, some of the hostages have been held by groups other than Hamas, so it’s very difficult to assess their status,” Tsukerman said.
One contact indicated that the “20” figure reflects what Hamas claims to still have alive under its authority.
Tribal networks or alternative factions in Gaza could be holding some captives independently of Hamas. Hamas has also acknowledged possessing multiple bodies of deceased hostages, whose return remains a critical priority for Israel.
“We just don’t know,” the Israeli source explained, underlining the uncertainty that clouds the precise count.
However, Israeli officials blame the Biden administration for the anticipated significant loss of life among the hostages and the extended anguish for their families.
The Biden administration postponed Israel’s military operation in Rafah for almost four months, which, according to these officials, enabled hostages to be relocated or killed.
One high-level source claimed the Biden administration resorted to “blackmail and every conceivable threat” to prevent Netanyahu from launching the operation in Rafah.
At that time, President Joe Biden allegedly cautioned that the United States would impose an arms embargo on Israel if the IDF pursued a comprehensive assault on the city.
In May of last year, Israel did initiate a military move into Rafah, destroying Hamas facilities on its periphery and performing pinpoint strikes within the city limits.
Negotiations remain in progress among Israel, Hamas, and Qatar regarding the fate of the remaining captives.
{Matzav.com}