In the year ahead, New Yorkers will elect state legislators and congressional representatives in contests that will set the stage for the redrawing of political maps, the 2022 gubernatorial race and the future of the state Republican Party. Democrats are expected to hold the Assembly, but Republicans hope to win back Trump-friendly congressional districts. The GOP is also hoping to avoid further losses in the Senate, a chamber they lost control of in 2018 after more than a half century of domination. But 2020 could cement the Republican Party’s losses in New Year for years to come if Democrats pick up seats left open by a wave of retiring GOP state senators and reelect several House Democrats who won in 2018 on promises to stand up to President Donald Trump, according to Grant Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship. “It solidifes their majority, and puts in place this idea that New York is just blue, full stop,” Reeher, also director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute, said. “And it seems like it’s going to be really tough for Republicans to make a real run at the governor’s seat, given what we’ve seen in recent elections.” “It’s going to become the case where Republican strategy is going to have to be: We try to win seats here and there,” he said. Siena College pollster Steve Greenberg said that Democrats’ growing voter enrollment advantage in suburban and upstate areas once considered Republican strongholds poses a “monumental problem” for the GOP in a presidential year. “The Democrats are likely to have a huge monetary advantage in terms of being able to spend on the races,” Greenberg said. Republicans are already attacking House Democrats who voted for Trump’s impeachment and plan to go after state-level Democrats for backing new bail reforms and proposals for single-payer health care. Party leaders hoping to win back moderates said they’re confident such tactics will work as Democrats push one another to be more liberal, while Reeher said a more left-wing Democratic presidential nominee could drive Republicans to the polls. “You’ve got these upstate districts where what’s going on in the middle is really important,” Reeher said. “A lot of these members who are holding these districts now were able to thread the needle or calibrate pretty carefully to appeal to that group.” Republicans are down to 23 out of 63 seats in the State Senate, 43 out of 150 state Assembly seats and five out of 27 congressional seats. A look at some races that that observers see as potential pickups for Republicans or Democrats: STATE SENATE DISTRICT 50 Republican Sen. Bob Antonacci was elected in 2018 but decided to run for state judge this year. His win in November has left his sharply divided district without a representative. Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, has hinted he would hold a special election for Antonacci’s seat on the date of the April presidential primary — a day seen as favorable for Democrats. Antonacci won in 2018 with just 2,332 votes more than Democratic challenger John Mannion, who has announced he will run for the seat. The upstate district had voted for Trump and President Barack Obama. ___ STATE SENATE DISTRICT 55 Sen. Richard Funke announced in mid-December that he was retiring, saying he […]
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