With tensions mounting and the fate of the Knesset hanging in the balance, the Knesset is set to convene today to vote on a bill that could dissolve the government amid a protracted impasse over the controversial military draft law for yeshiva students.
Weeks of stalled negotiations between Likud and the chareidi parties over a new draft bill have brought the coalition to the brink. In a notable shift from past approaches—when legal clearance was sought after a political deal was reached—officials are now attempting to begin with a version that can withstand scrutiny from the High Court of Justice and only afterward present it to the chareidi factions.
Despite the rising pressure, coalition insiders insist the move to bring a dissolution bill to the floor does not necessarily signal an irreversible march toward new elections. Rather, they view it as a strategic maneuver, a way to signal to the chareidi parties, who are deeply concerned about a lame-duck government unable to advance the draft law, that time is running out. Shas and United Torah Judaism have indicated that discussions are ongoing and that no final decisions have been made.
As a possible alternative, Likud is exploring a short-term legislative fix: instead of a full overhaul, the party has floated the idea of passing the draft law as a temporary measure, valid for a year or two. The Knesset’s legal adviser has expressed a willingness to review this option, but no formal language has yet been drafted.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has been working to contain the fallout. In meetings with coalition leaders, particularly from the chareidi parties, he emphasized the stakes involved. “We are at a historic crossroads with extraordinary challenges. We must not shake the foundations of the government right now,” Netanyahu reportedly told his associates.
As part of the effort to manage the delicate situation, Netanyahu’s office has opted to focus its outreach on Degel HaTorah and Shas, after recognizing that efforts to persuade Agudas Yisrael are unlikely to succeed. The Degel head, Housing Minister Yitzchok Goldknopf, who is not a Knesset member, has publicly endorsed dissolving the Knesset, and his stance has been echoed by the rest of his faction.
Coalition sources believe Goldknopf’s position is being heavily influenced by his senior adviser Motti Babchik, who is currently in the United States alongside the Gerrer Rebbe. Babchik, once known for his behind-the-scenes mediation, is now seen as driving a more hardline stance, ironically helping fuel the very crisis he might once have worked to defuse.
Meanwhile, Degel HaTorah appears open to a compromise, but remains firm that any draft proposal must be approved by its rabbinic leadership. “Without agreement, we’ll vote for dissolution,” a party insider warned.
Given the current makeup of the Knesset, Shas holds the deciding vote. While Agudas Yisrael (3 seats) and Degel HaTorah (4 seats) seem poised to support dissolution, Shas and its 11 seats could tip the scale. If the party chooses to oppose the bill, the result could be a 60–60 deadlock—halting the process, at least for now.
The opposition, for its part, has yet to adopt a unified stance. Some opposition lawmakers worry that a failed vote could delay any renewed push for six months under Knesset rules, prompting internal debate over whether to press ahead.
In any case, the next few hours are expected to be critical. Not only will they test whether the coalition can maintain cohesion under mounting strain, but they may also reshape the dynamics within the chareidi political world, now at the center of this high-stakes standoff.
Will a compromise be reached in time? Or will Israel be headed toward new elections? The answers are likely just hours away.
{Matzav.com Israel}