Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is shaping up to be the leading contender to head the party’s 2028 presidential ticket—if she decides to enter the race, according to political analyst Nate Silver.
Silver offered his take during a “2028 Democratic primary draft” discussion on his “Silver Bulletin” Substack, where he was joined by “GD Politics” podcast host Galen Druke. Druke beat Silver to the punch by naming Ocasio-Cortez as his top pick for the nomination.
“That was going to be my … first pick!” Silver exclaimed after Druke claimed Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) as his top choice.
Druke highlighted findings from a Yale University survey that showed Ocasio-Cortez scoring one of the strongest favorability margins among Democratic voters, with a net +60 rating.
In the same survey, Ocasio-Cortez placed second in a theoretical 2028 Democratic primary field, trailing only Kamala Harris.
“I think there’s a lot of points in her favor at this very moment,” Druke said. “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party.”
“I think equally important is the fact that she has very fervent support. I think a lot of people are gonna run in 2028 and it’s going to be a contest for attention and getting those sort of people who might be in your boat to turn out and stay with you through thick and thin.”
Silver responded by saying, “I agree with everything” Druke said, though he added that it’s far from certain that she’ll run, that many things could change between now and 2028, and that Democrats may eventually question whether she can win a general election.
Druke, however, expressed greater certainty that Ocasio-Cortez would enter the race, pointing to her recent national tour with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) under the banner of the “Fighting Oligarchy Tour.”
Silver also mentioned that Ocasio-Cortez was holding her own in polls in a hypothetical 2028 matchup against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), even though, as he put it, “New York Democrats are actually a pretty moderate bloc.” He further described her as “canny” and “charismatic.”
With Ocasio-Cortez off the board, Silver turned to Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as his first pick.
“In the past three nomination races … you kind of have this compromise candidate where you have the moderates and you have the progressives and you get kind of somewhere in the middle,” Silver explained. “If you’re not going to pick an AOC … then maybe go to someone who’s fully moderate, ‘electable.’”
Silver then went on to select a string of figures including Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, ex-New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), billionaire Mark Cuban, and Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.).
Druke followed his Ocasio-Cortez pick by drafting Vice President Harris, then continued with a list that included former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Rubin Gallego (D-Ariz.), Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and Sanders.
The pair critiqued each other’s picks, with Druke implying Booker has always received more hype than he’s deserved, while Silver took aim at Harris’ performance in the 2024 race, saying she made “a lot of tactical errors” that raised doubts about her political savvy.
“Kamala Harris has universal name recognition,” Druke said. “I think that she could go some way to clear the field if she decided early to get in. I think we don’t yet know how big of an electoral flop she is.”
“We saw with Joe Biden, he was on the campaign in 2019, right? It was not debate performances, it was not like [his] ability to give a rousing speech or anything like that got him the nomination,” he continued. “It was kind of just outliving everyone else and being a consensus candidate.”
At present, Harris is reportedly weighing whether to mount a campaign for California governor in 2026 or to go straight for the White House two years later.
One of the pivotal moments that contributed to Biden stepping aside and Harris becoming the Democratic nominee in 2024 was an op-ed from actor George Clooney in The New York Times, which questioned the president’s mental sharpness.
Clooney has floated the idea that Wes Moore could become the “levitating above” candidate in the field of 2028 Democratic hopefuls—someone who stands out from the crowd.
Back in the previous election cycle, Silver famously said his “gut says Donald Trump” would win the presidency, though his forecasting models showed the race as essentially even. He had also projected that President Trump was likely to lose both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Silver rose to fame during the 2008 election when he accurately predicted the outcome in 49 out of 50 states.
{Matzav.com}