Andrew Cuomo, the former governor of New York, has gained an early lead in the race for mayor of New York City, outpacing a crowded group of competitors. However, some within his campaign are skeptical about whether this early momentum will translate into a win during the Democratic primary this summer.
Cuomo, who stepped down from office in 2021 amid sexual misconduct allegations that he continues to deny, launched his mayoral campaign on March 1. He quickly emerged as the top contender among Democrats, according to several polling results.
New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who himself faced controversy after being indicted on corruption charges—only to later be pardoned by President Donald Trump—has seen his poll numbers decline recently.
A recent Quinnipiac University survey reveals that Adams’ job approval has hit a new low, with only 28% of New Yorkers approving of his performance. In contrast, 58% disapprove, including 78% of Democrats, 63% of independents, and 52% of Republicans.
That same poll indicated Adams has just 11% support in the mayoral race, with Cuomo ahead at 31%. No other candidate reached double digits in support.
“Three and a half years after scandals forced him to resign as New York’s governor, Andrew Cuomo leads a crowded field of Democratic mayoral hopefuls with a boost from moderate Democrats. A key number to watch: 16%, the slice of voters who are undecided as this race gains more attention,” wrote Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow in her analysis.
Despite Cuomo’s strong position, The Wall Street Journal has reported that his early advantage may not guarantee a victory in the Democratic primary, which is scheduled for June 24.
There have been several instances in recent New York City mayoral races where frontrunners early in the campaign eventually lost steam as the election progressed. In the 2021 election, entrepreneur Andrew Yang led in early polls but saw his support decline as Adams gained momentum in the weeks leading up to the primary.
A similar scenario unfolded in 2013 when Christine Quinn, the former city council speaker, lost to Bill de Blasio in the primary. Despite leading in early polls, Quinn was overtaken by de Blasio, who was serving as the city’s Public Advocate at the time.
“Everybody says, ‘Oh, Cuomo’s going to win.’ He looks that way today, but there’s a long time till June,” Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democratic campaign consultant, told the Journal. “He’s running as the stability agent who knows how to be a manager, and three months out, those arguments are working.
“But polls in March for a June election are about as good as a shearling coat in Manhattan in July.”
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