On Wednesday, French lawmakers from both far-right and left-wing factions succeeded in toppling the government, pushing the European Union’s second-largest economy into a deeper political crisis. This crisis threatens to impair France’s ability to legislate and address a substantial budget deficit.
Lawmakers from both extremes of the political spectrum united to support a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Michel Barnier and his administration. The motion passed with a majority of 331 votes in favor.
Barnier is now expected to submit his resignation, along with that of his entire government, to President Emmanuel Macron in the near future.
This marks the first time since 1962, when Georges Pompidou’s government lost a confidence vote, that a French government has been ousted. The current crisis was sparked by Macron’s decision to call for an early election in June, resulting in a fragmented and polarized parliament.
With the president weakened, France is on the verge of ending the year without a functioning government or an approved budget for 2025. Although the constitution allows for temporary measures to avoid a US-style government shutdown, the situation remains dire.
The ongoing political instability in France is likely to further destabilize the European Union, already shaken by the collapse of Germany’s coalition government. This comes just weeks before President-elect Donald Trump is set to return to the White House.
Barnier’s decision to bypass a final vote on part of an unpopular budget, using special constitutional powers to force through €60 billion in savings to reduce the deficit, angered both the left and far-right. This move was seen as an overreach, prompting both factions to unite in opposition.
Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right, argued that the government’s collapse was the “only way the constitution gives us to protect the French from a dangerous, unfair and punitive budget.”
With the government now ousted, France faces a period of political instability, which is already unsettling investors. In fact, France’s borrowing costs briefly surpassed those of Greece earlier this week, an alarming sign given Greece’s financial troubles.
Now, Macron faces a critical decision.
Multiple sources have informed Reuters that Macron plans to quickly appoint a new prime minister, with one of them suggesting that he aims to do so before a ceremony to reopen the Notre-Dame Cathedral on Saturday, which will be attended by President-elect Trump.
Any new prime minister would face the same hurdles as Barnier in attempting to pass key legislation, including the 2025 budget, through a divided parliament. Given that parliamentary elections cannot occur until July, the new leader will have limited time to maneuver.
Alternatively, Macron could ask Barnier and his ministers to remain in office as a caretaker government while he searches for a new prime minister capable of securing the necessary cross-party support for passing legislation.
A caretaker administration could either propose emergency measures to extend the tax and spending provisions of the 2024 budget into the next year, or use special powers to approve the 2025 budget by decree. However, legal experts have pointed out that this approach is uncertain, and the political consequences could be severe.
Macron’s primary challenge is that his opponents may continue to reject one prime minister after another, prolonging the political crisis.
Opponents of Macron argue that the only viable solution to end the crisis is for him to step down, although he has shown little desire to do so up until now.
For Le Pen, the upheaval carries its own risks. She has long tried to persuade voters that her party offers a stable alternative government, but the current crisis may challenge that narrative.
Blame for the current situation is being placed by both Barnier’s supporters and Le Pen’s National Rally party, which had been supporting the minority coalition. Both sides accuse the other of being responsible for the current political turmoil.
{Matzav.com}