A major winter storm has begun to deliver a wintry mess to more than 80 million Americans, with winter storm watches and warnings stretching from New Mexico to Maine. Ice storm warnings cover parts of the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys too, where upward of a half inch of glaze will bring down trees and power lines and render travel virtually impossible.
Cities like Dallas, Memphis and Little Rock are in line for likely ice storm conditions and potential power outages, while regions farther north will pick up heavy snow. More than 10 inches of snow is expected across some parts of the Midwest, including St. Louis, Indianapolis, Toledo and Detroit through Thursday.
“The storm will be prolonged with several rounds of winter weather lasting through Thursday for portions of the central U.S. before shifting to the interior Northeast,” wrote the National Weather Service.
In the interior Northeast, more than 10 inches of snow could fall in Buffalo, Syracuse and Burlington late Thursday into Friday.
A messier slew of sleet, freezing rain, snow and rain is anticipated in eastern New England Friday, where crashing temperatures may induce a flash freeze that could turn roadways into a skating rink.
Meanwhile, flooding is a possibility on the system’s warm side in the Deep South, where a few strong thunderstorms are likely Thursday.
It comes just days after a historic nor’easter plastered the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic with up to 30 inches of snow, the storm logging the snowiest calendar day in Boston’s recorded history with nearly two feet having fallen.
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On Wednesday morning the ingredients for the storm were beginning to come together as snow was breaking out in Kansas City, St. Louis, Chicago and Detroit. A weak wave of low pressure stretched from west of Dallas to eastern Oklahoma along Interstate 40; that counterclockwise-spinning low will gradually intensify as it slips east.
Flood watches blanket much of northern and central Alabama, northwest Georgia, Middle Tennessee and southeast Kentucky, where a heavy rainfall will persist through Thursday. Rain was already coming down across most of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky, and will total up to 3 to 5 inches. Thursday will feature isolated severe thunderstorms across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama and the Florida Panhandle with a nonzero risk of an isolated tornado.
At the same time, clockwise-rotating high pressure offshore of the Southeast will remain parked in place. Like meshing gears, the two systems will ensnare a strip of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico that will surge northward.
Meanwhile, a stalled cold front, reinforced by Arctic high pressure dropping into the Dakotas from Alberta and Saskatchewan, stretches from near Fort Worth to the Ohio River to near Toledo to southern Quebec.
Gulf moisture from the south will surge northward, riding up and over a shallow dome of cold, dense air behind the front. Liquid precipitation will fall through mild air before entering freezing air near the ground. The result? A dangerously slick glaze that will build up on roadways, walkways, trees and power lines Wednesday night into Thursday.
Farther north, where cold air is more deeply entrenched, residents can expect all snow. Snow was ongoing from western Kansas through Michigan Wednesday morning. That zone of snow will spread farther northeast as the day wears on, with snowfall rates set to pick up as well.
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Freezing rain was falling in northeast Oklahoma and southern Missouri as daylight dawned Wednesday, with sleet to the north. After an initial pulse of moisture shifts into the Midwest, a second, more vigorous disturbance will ride along the front as if on rail tracks late Wednesday. That will drop moderate rainfall into a subfreezing air mass banked in northern Texas. Freezing rain will occur between San Angelo and north of Dallas-Ft. Worth near the Red River by Wednesday evening.
“Power outages and trees damage will be possible due to the ice,” the Weather Service wrote in its winter storm warning for the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
On Thursday, the freezing rain will expand northeast along the Ohio River, with significant ice buildup in northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. Some freezing rain may even make it into Pennsylvania.
A glaze to a quarter inch of ice is possible in cities like Dallas, Memphis and Lexington, Ky., with up to a half inch possible in Jonesboro, Ark., Louisville and Evansville, Indiana. Cincinnati could see a moderate glaze too.
“Travel is strongly discouraged,” wrote the National Weather Service in Memphis. “If you must travel, keep extra blankets, food, water and a flashlight in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.”
Models indicate that some freezing rain is possible in the Northeast and interior Mid-Atlantic in the Friday time frame, but details on locations that will be most affected and the specific timing are still coming together.
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To the north of the ice zone, heavy snow will fall in a swath from northeast Oklahoma through Missouri and all the way past the Great Lakes and into New England. Cities like St. Louis, Indianapolis, Toledo, Cleveland, Rochester and Syracuse, New York could all wind up with double-digit snowfall totals.
The snow will come in two waves; after the ongoing snow in the Upper Midwest moves off Wednesday evening, a second round will develop, displaced slightly to the south Wednesday night into Thursday from roughly northeast Texas and eastern Oklahoma into northern Ohio. That second wave will sweep across the interior Northeast Thursday night into Friday
There may be pockets along the Interstate 70 corridor of eastern Missouri, southern Illinois and Indiana that wind up with nearly a foot and a half when all is said and done, as both waves of snow will transit those areas. If Indianapolis receives a foot or more, it will mark the city’s sixth heaviest snowstorm on record. Bookkeeping there dates back to World War II.
Chicago should be on the fringe of the heaviest snows. While it gets hit by the first wave, the second wave should miss to the south. Amounts will drop sharply on the north side of town. Porter County, Indiana may see eight inches of more, while Kenosha, Wisconsin, about an hour’s drive from the Chicago Metro, will see just an inch or two.
The long-duration event could feature snowfall through very early Friday in northern Ohio, meaning a 36 hour window of inclement weather. Northern New England will see moderate to heavy snows possibly topping a foot on Thursday night and Friday, but precipitation should clear the coast Friday night.
In southern New England, precipitation will begin as rain before transitioning to freezing rain, sleet and snow as temperatures plummet along and behind the front. Any liquid or slush that falls will quickly freeze up late Friday night, making for treacherous travel conditions. Initial rainfall will also preclude effective pre-treatement of roadways with salt and other chemicals.
Thereafter, a frigid weekend is store.
(c) 2022, The Washington Post · Matthew Cappucci 
{Matzav.com}