Syrian rebel forces, led by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), caught both the Assad regime and outside observers off guard with an offensive that swiftly overtook Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city after Damascus, within just 72 hours. This came after years of military stagnation in the region.
However, the surprise might not have been warranted.
In recent months, there has been a noticeable increase in clashes between Syrian forces and opposition factions in the northwest of Syria. These skirmishes, which resulted in civilian casualties, were perceived by rebels as violations of the 2019 ceasefire agreement. That deal was brokered by Russia, which supports Assad, and Turkey, which backs some of the rebel factions in the north.
HTS had been preparing for such an assault for years by strengthening its military forces.
According to Charles Lister, a Syria expert at the Middle East Institute, “The group operates a professionally staffed military academy run by defectors from the Syrian military, and it has restructured its armed wing into a conventional armed force structure.” Lister also noted, “In recent years, it has also developed ‘special forces’ units dedicated to covert operations, lightning raids behind enemy lines, and nighttime operations.”
Carmit Valensi, the head of the Northern Arena Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, explained the timing of the offensive, stating, “The timing is not coincidental.” She went on to say, “They identify well the critical, even historical, weakness that the ‘Resistance Axis,’ primarily Hezbollah and Iran, find themselves in.”
The weakness she pointed to stems from recent shifts in the region. Hezbollah and Iranian-backed Shiite militias had been deployed to confront Israel’s ground invasion in Lebanon in October, and many of their fighters suffered casualties from Israeli airstrikes and ground operations. Additionally, Iran has been under pressure from Israeli air raids, especially following its ballistic missile attacks against Israel in early October.
Further complicating matters for Assad, Hezbollah’s diminished presence in Syria is coupled with Russia’s reduced focus. The Russian military, heavily engaged in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, has fewer resources to commit to Syria. Meanwhile, with the impending arrival of the Trump administration in the U.S., Iran faces the prospect of heightened sanctions and even greater economic strain.
In an interview with Israel’s Channel 12, a rebel commander openly acknowledged the influence of Israel’s military successes on their actions. “We looked at the [ceasefire] agreement with Hezbollah and understood that this is the time to liberate our lands,” he explained. “This operation was critical. We will not let Hezbollah fight in our areas and we will not let the Iranians take root there.”
The commander further emphasized that the ultimate aim is to overthrow Assad’s regime and establish a government that fosters positive relations with all neighboring countries, including Israel.
Nevertheless, this offensive alone is unlikely to bring down the Assad regime. HTS will need to coordinate with other rebel groups, especially those in southern Syria, and they will have to overcome past difficulties in cooperation—something that was a significant challenge during the civil war nearly ten years ago.
There is no certainty that the recent gains will continue, particularly if Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah mobilize their forces in response to the growing threat. Valensi suggested, “If so, we could see this end very quickly.”
Should the Assad regime fall, it would be a significant and unexpected victory for Israel, potentially leading to the collapse of the Iranian-backed axis in the region. This shift in power would coincide with Israel’s efforts to prevent Hezbollah from restocking its weapons supply, much of which is funneled through Syria to Lebanon.
An Israeli official, when questioned about the implications of the rebel successes, declined to comment directly but reassured, “Israel is paying close attention all the time to what is happening in Syria, and is ready for any scenario.”
At the same time, there are risks to consider if the rebels succeed in toppling Assad’s regime.
Valensi warned, “The fall of the regime could create chaos, and it’s not clear who would rule there.” She added that, “There won’t be an address that Israel likes, whom you can hold a conversation with through military force or other methods.”
Israel’s likely involvement in any future conflict would depend on certain red lines. According to assessments, Israel would intervene only if Syrian chemical weapons were at risk of falling into the wrong hands or if the security of the Golan Heights were threatened.
Regardless of what happens next—whether Russia and Iran manage to stem the rebel advance or if HTS sparks a wider offensive—the timing and success of this operation underscore the weakening position of Iran in the region. Once the most assertive power in the area, Iran’s influence has been undermined, and attacks from its proxies have caused Gulf states to reconsider their diplomatic positions toward Tehran.