Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former President Donald Trump in both major polling averages from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris’s lead, which initially narrowed to 0.2 percent, has widened to 1.8 percent, placing her at 45.2% compared to Trump’s 43.4%. Meanwhile, in the RCP average, Trump started with nearly a two-point lead, but Harris now holds a half-point advantage, with 47.4% to Trump’s 46.9%. It’s important to note the differences in how these averages are calculated. The RCP average looks back at the previous two weeks of qualifying polls and produces an unweighted average. This method has its pros and cons, as it can be influenced by the number of polls using a “likely voter” model or outliers from lower-rated pollsters. Conversely, the FiveThirtyEight average uses a more complex formula that weights results based on pollster ratings, sample sizes, and state polling results, aiming for a more stable and comprehensive gauge of public opinion. While neither average should be disregarded, they each offer unique insights. The more volatile RCP average can quickly identify emerging trends but may also amplify the impact of outlier polls, leading to fluctuating headlines. On the other hand, the FiveThirtyEight average provides a steadier view of the race, though it may not react as swiftly to new trends. (YWN World Headquarters – NYC)