A hurricane, which will be named Helene, is expected to form and rapidly intensify this week in the Gulf of Mexico before hitting Florida on Thursday or early Friday. Over the weekend, risks increased of a major hurricane landfall in the state – with the greatest likelihood of direct impacts currently in Florida’s Big Bend and Panhandle areas.
The system is currently located east of the Yucatán Peninsula in the northwestern Caribbean and is moving over extremely warm waters. It’s expected to develop into a named storm by Tuesday afternoon before entering the Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday.
In addition to inhabitants of the Big Bend and Panhandle areas, residents from Fort Myers, Fla., to Gulfport and Biloxi in Mississippi should remain on alert. There is a chance the storm may trend east of model guidance and bring severe winds and storm surge to Tampa.
The National Hurricane Center is warning of “increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds” along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including Florida’s Panhandle and west coast.
Hurricane watches are likely to be posted along the Gulf Coast by late Monday or early Tuesday, and warnings will be issued by early Wednesday. Evacuations will probably begin very early Wednesday – which will mark the final 36 to 48 hours before landfall.
Helene will be the eighth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the fourth to make landfall in the United States. Hurricane Beryl struck south of Houston as a high-end Category 1 on July 8, and Debby hit the Big Bend of Florida as a Category 1 in early August. Then Category 2 Francine made landfall southeast of New Orleans on Sept. 12.
Unless there are dramatic changes in modeling before landfall, soon-to-be-Helene could be the strongest storm to strike the United States in the 2024 season.
– – –
Where is the system now, and when could it become a named storm?
As of late morning Monday, the roiling mass of thunderstorms that will become Helene was 350 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba. It’s over the northwestern Caribbean and is producing an impressive amount of downpour and thunderstorm activity. The system, with peak winds of 30 mph, is moving nearly due north at 6 mph.
It was beginning to look like the system was developing a low-level center, which is a step in the direction of earning a name. But it appeared as though the low-level center and mid-level circulation had not linked up yet. Once they do, faster strengthening and the construction of an inner core will follow.
It’s likely the storm will be officially designated as Helene very late Monday or, more likely, early Tuesday.
– – –
Where will this storm most likely go? When will it make landfall?
Helene will either thread the gap up the Yucatán Channel – or the open ocean between Cancún and western Cuba – or pass over western Cuba. If it stays over the open ocean, it will have a subtle head start on intensifying. Otherwise, brief land interaction over western Cuba might temporarily disrupt its strengthening – but as Hurricane Ian showed in September 2022, major hurricanes can still come about after a circulation passes over Cuba.
Then it will have about 48 hours over the Gulf of Mexico to strengthen – all the while being tugged northward ahead of an approaching upper-level low pressure system. That low will also help high-altitude air to fan away from Helene, which in turn will create a vacuum effect in the upper atmosphere that pulls warm, moist air upward. That will serve to help Helene’s strengthening, and rapid intensification is probable – particularly as the system takes advantage of extremely warm sea surface temperatures and calm winds in the upper atmosphere.
“The environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening,” the Hurricane Center wrote. It said that one of its statistical tools indicate that there is 95 percent chance that the system’s peak winds will increase at least 75 mph in the next 72 hours.
As of now, it appears the storm will make landfall late Thursday. While the greatest risk is in the Big Bend of Florida, there’s a chance the approaching low pressure system could shift it closer eastward toward Tampa. For now, the biggest risk is between Apalachicola and Cedar Key, Fla.
– – –
How strong could it get, and how could it impact the coast?
There is a very real possibility that Helene could be a Category 3 or 4 by early Thursday.
Helene will be moving over a “loop current,” or a corridor off the west coast of Florida with exceptional sea surface temperatures. The Gulf of Mexico currently has record oceanic heat content, or hurricane fuel, and it’s an untapped powder keg of energy for the storm to tap into.
There is a chance that outflow, or high-altitude exhaust air, exiting a tropical storm in the Pacific may disrupt Helene’s strengthening. If that happens, it could slightly curb Helene’s strength. Still, it will probably be a strong storm.
If Helene comes ashore as a major hurricane, winds of 115 mph or greater are possible in the storm’s eyewall, as well as a storm surge of greater than 8 feet.
– – –
What will happen after the storm moves inland?
Once the system moves inland, heavy rains – with totals of at least 5 to 10 inches – are possible, which will cause flooding. Tornadoes are also a concern
Depending on the strength of the storm, and if any dry air invades, it’s likely that a swath of wind damage will sweep through upward of 100 miles inland. That will be particularly true if Helene moves quickly inland Friday.
(c) Washington Post