By Chaim Saller, Matzav.com
The following are two major takeaways from Tuesday night’s election in Toms River, NJ, in which Mo Hill and his entire slate won.
First, all the Jewish-supported candidates won by margins smaller than the Jewish vote. So the Jewish vote clearly swayed the election. Jewish-community-supported Mo Hill garnered 511 more votes than runner up Joe Coronato. Had 256 Jewish voters voted for Coronato and his slate instead of Hill and his, Coronato and his slate would have won. The breakdown of districts show that Hill won by a landslide in the Jewish-dense areas.
Second, and perhaps equally significant, according to Matzav.com analysis, Rise Up Ocean County influenced about 55-65 voters, despite their repeated claims that they have over 3,000 followers in Toms River. This is a little more complicated to explain, so see the visual above.
RUOC endorsed three candidates from three slates, one from Coronato’s, one from Hill’s, and one independent, all marked with black arrows. The lines on the side are slates. The first is Coronato’s, second independent, then Rodrick’s, and finally Hill’s, Looking within Coronato’s and Hill’s slate, the RUOC-endorsed candidate only outperformed their fellow slate-members by a maximum of 82 votes. Some of these votes may have been drawn from their own fellow-slate members, which means that they drew approximately 65 voters from other candidates.
(The voters drawn from candidates on their own slates would result in a divide greater than the number of voters influenced, as each voter that switches within the slate makes a discrepancy of two votes.)
This number of voters influenced may be slightly less or more than 65, but is definitely not more than 82. This obviously goes with the assumption that all the members of one slate would get an assumed equal number of votes, and there seems to be no reason to refute this claim.
So the bottom line is that analysis seems to show that Rise Up Ocean County had a minuscule roughly 65 vote influence, definitely not enough to have been the decider of the mayoral race.
{Matzav.com Newscenter}