NASA is closely monitoring a potential “city-killer” asteroid that is currently heading toward Earth, taking no chances in tracking its movements. The space agency is paying close attention to this asteroid, named 2024 YR4, which has a 1.5% chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. International space organizations are working hand-in-hand to study its trajectory and strategize on how to destroy it if needed.
“We know we have enough time to act, but now’s the time to start planning. You can’t half-ass this at the last minute,” said a project manager at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center.
Earlier this week, NASA revealed a concerning probability of a potential impact at 3.1%, equating to about a 1 in 32 chance—more likely than guessing correctly on a roulette wheel. However, by Wednesday, the agency updated its figures, suggesting a lower likelihood that Earth would be hit after gathering more data.
YR4, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in diameter—roughly the size of a large office building—could potentially strike one of the world’s most densely populated cities. Locations such as Bogota, Colombia; Lagos, Nigeria; and Mumbai, India could be in danger, with up to 110 million people at risk if the asteroid makes contact with Earth.
If the asteroid impacts one of these cities, the consequences would be disastrous.
“If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs,” said Bruce Betts, chief scientist at the Planetary Society, in an interview with AFP.
The exact location of the asteroid’s arrival in 2032 is still being tracked. If space agencies determine a likely impact, they could deploy a rocket with explosives to divert or destroy the asteroid before it reaches Earth.
“Destroying it would be easy,” the NASA project manager commented. “It wouldn’t even take that much explosives. The trick is getting to it, and delivering the explosives precisely at the right time, at the right angle. That’s the hard part.”
How to approach destroying the asteroid depends on its composition, which is still unknown. Some asteroids, made up of porous rock and metal, can be destroyed more easily, as seen with the Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013. Others, denser and more solid, would require more powerful explosives to break apart.
NASA has not disclosed whether they would use a nuclear warhead or another form of explosive, and experts advise caution in speculating at this stage, as it remains too early in the process to make any definitive plans.
“We’ll be able to track it until April, and then it’ll be too far away. But we can learn a lot in the next month or so, and figure out what to do from there,” a NASA representative explained.
NASA has been collaborating with multiple space agencies, including the China National Space Administration (CNSA), Roscosmos, and the European Space Agency (ESA), as well as the International Asteroid Warning Network. These teams are working to map the asteroid’s path and assess the risk of it colliding with Earth at a speed of 38,000 miles per hour.
Numerous telescopes are currently observing the asteroid, which is now traveling away from Earth in an elliptical orbit that will bring it closer to the Sun. It takes approximately four years for the asteroid to complete one orbit.
2024 YR4 was first detected in December, and initially, astronomers estimated a 1 in 83 chance of it striking Earth during its return in 2032.
The asteroid will pass near Earth again in 2028, providing scientists with another opportunity to recalculate the odds of an impact and determine whether the risk is still present.
Some experts believe the chances of an impact will decrease significantly after the asteroid’s next orbit. “At some point in the next months to few years, the probability will go to zero,” Betts said.
However, NASA and the other agencies involved are not letting their guard down.
“We have plenty of notice, and this is one to watch,” said the NASA project manager. “It could end up not being a danger at all. It could change in mass if there’s ice on it, and that would change things tremendously.”
“It could wobble just a little bit now, and that slight change now could add up to tens of thousands of miles by the time it gets back this way. The sky isn’t falling—yet. Anything can happen. But we still have to stay on our guard.”
{Matzav.com}