India has launched missiles into Pakistani territory in retaliation for a gun massacre on tourists in April. Pakistan’s leader condemned the strikes and vowed his country would deliver a robust response. The missile launch, and Pakistan’s promise to hit back, have stoked fears of a war between the nuclear-armed neighbors. But the early morning strikes show that India can hurt Pakistan without entering its airspace or deploying nuclear weapons. A look at what might lie ahead for the two rivals: Both have nuclear weapons, but as a deterrent India and Pakistan have built up nuclear arsenals over the years. But their purpose is to stop wars, not start them. India has a “no first use” policy. That means it will only retaliate with nuclear weapons if there is a nuclear attack on Indian forces or Indian territories. Pakistan’s policy is to use tactical nuclear weapons to counter nuclear threats and conventional military attacks from its bigger, stronger and richer regional rival. Pakistan has not ruled out using nuclear weapons first if it feels an existential threat. But it can ill afford to initiate such a war with India because of its neighbor’s superior firepower. Pakistan has lost three conventional wars in the past. South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman said the Wednesday morning strikes were some of the highest-intensity from India on its rival in years and that Pakistan’s response would “surely pack a punch as well.” “These are two strong militaries that, even with nuclear weapons as a deterrent, are not afraid to deploy sizeable levels of conventional military force against each other,” Kugelman said. “The escalation risks are real. And they could well increase, and quickly.” Neither has details about the other’s arsenal Neither country knows what nuclear weapons the other has or how many. India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974. Pakistan carried out its first in 1988. Think tanks suggest Pakistan has 170 warheads while India has 172. Some analyses indicate Pakistan could have more, around 200. Pakistan holds its nuclear arsenal to deter India from invasion or massive attack. In the current situation, it is up to Pakistan to decide how it fights back without provoking India further and without starting something it cannot win. So far, it claims to have shot down several Indian jets in retaliation. Despite decades of hostility and suspicion, India and Pakistan are signatories to a pact that bars them from attacking each other’s nuclear facilities. As part of the Prohibition of Attack against Nuclear Installations and Facilities, the two sides exchange lists of their nuclear facilities and installations each January. They have exchanged lists for 34 consecutive years. However, neither country is a signatory to the global Non-Proliferation Treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology. Both prefer limited strikes on specific targets Flare-ups between India and Pakistan have seen precision attacks and reprisals, escalating slowly while giving each side the option to defuse. Border skirmishes are common. India has been under huge domestic pressure to respond this time because the victims in last month’s gun massacre were civilians. It said its armed forces targeted sites used by militants linked to the attack on tourists. In 2019, after a suicide car bombing, there was a predawn airstrike from India that it said targeted a terrorist training camp in Pakistan. Pakistan later claimed to have shot […]