A fresh survey conducted by the Midgam Institute and broadcast Tuesday night on Channel 12 News examined how Gadi Eisenkot’s departure from the National Unity Party could influence the Israeli political landscape.
If elections were to be held now with the current parties in place, Likud would earn 26 seats in the Knesset, and Naftali Bennett’s faction would come in close behind with 24. The Democrats would secure 12, Yisrael Beytenu 10, Yesh Atid and Shas would each garner 9, United Torah Judaism would get 8, Blue and White and Otzma Yehudit would both receive 6, while Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would take 5 each. The Religious Zionist Party wouldn’t reach the minimum threshold required for representation.
In a case where Eisenkot launches his own party, it would gain 8 seats—overtaking both Yesh Atid and Blue and White. Under that scenario, Likud’s seat count would stay at 26, while Bennett’s faction would slip to 22. Support for the Democrats would decrease to 10, Yesh Atid would drop to 7, and Gantz’s and Liberman’s parties would each lose one seat.
If Eisenkot were to take the helm of Yesh Atid with Yair Lapid second on the list, their ticket would receive a boost, reaching 18 seats. Likud would still remain at 26 seats. Bennett’s party would slide to 21, Democrats would lose ground with just 9 seats, and Blue and White would be reduced to 4.
Alternatively, should Eisenkot align with Bennett as his deputy, the joint list would become the most powerful force in the Knesset, earning 32 seats. Likud would see a slight increase to 27. Democrats would dip to 11, Yesh Atid would fall to 8, and Blue and White would not manage to get any seats at all.
A different poll by the Maagar Mochot Institute, aired on Channel 13 News, showed that a new party led by Eisenkot would capture 9 seats—again pushing Blue and White out of the Knesset. According to that poll, Likud would win 25 seats, Bennett’s slate would take 21, Shas and Yisrael Beytenu would each get 10, Democrats would finish with 9, Otzma Yehudit would get 8, United Torah Judaism 7, and Yesh Atid 7. Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al would each secure 5 seats. The Religious Zionist Party would just make it in with 4 seats.
This arrangement would give the current governing coalition 54 seats. Meanwhile, the opposition bloc, along with the Arab parties, would command a majority with 66 seats.
That same poll also analyzed what might happen if Eisenkot were to run on a joint ticket with Bennett. That partnership would again claim the top spot with 31 seats. Likud would secure 24, Democrats would climb to 10, and Gantz’s National Unity Party would barely scrape by with 4 seats.
The final scenario evaluated Eisenkot joining forces with Lapid. That version of Yesh Atid would bring in 14 seats. Likud would garner 26, Bennett’s party would collect 23, and the National Unity Party would fall below the threshold and be eliminated from the Knesset.
{Matzav.com}