“Optimism is warranted,” remarked one of Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu’s advisors on Wednesday after a sleepless night following the U.S. election results. Not long after, even before major U.S. networks announced Trump’s win, Netanyahu was already one of the first leaders to extend his congratulations to the president-elect.
It’s clear that Netanyahu pinned his hopes on Trump’s victory. Although there has been tension and some unfavorable comments from Trump about him, Netanyahu sees this outcome as ideal. He believes Trump and his influential allies align with Israel’s interests. After a rocky relationship with the previous Democratic administration, which he feels was antagonistic toward him, Netanyahu is certain that Trump is the preferable choice for Israel.
But what implications does Trump’s victory hold for Israel?
According to Itamar Eichner, reporting for Yediot Achronot:
First, it’s important to note that Israel is heading into a pivotal phase. Until Trump officially takes office on January 20, the current U.S. President Joe Biden retains the full scope of presidential power. Israel must consider that Biden might use this period to enact policies that could impact Netanyahu.
Some officials worry about a potential repeat of the events on December 23, 2016, when then-President Barack Obama abstained from vetoing a UN Security Council resolution against Israeli settlements, which passed and led to legal and international consequences for Israel. Netanyahu is concerned that a similar move could be in the works.
In the meantime, Biden might use his remaining time to intensify negotiations on a hostage deal and pressure Netanyahu into making concessions, such as a possible withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor. Biden is also expected to push forward with the diplomatic initiative between Israel and Lebanon, an arrangement Netanyahu appears open to, contrasting with negotiations surrounding Gaza.
As for the future under Trump, Netanyahu will likely aim to collaborate fully with Trump and his administration on pressing issues such as Lebanon, Gaza, Iran, and the hostage situation. An invitation to the White House soon after Trump’s inauguration is expected, though until then, Netanyahu will need to skillfully manage relations during Biden’s remaining weeks in office.
Still, no one assumes that working with Trump will be without challenges. Trump has repeatedly stated his desire to see an end to conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza and is committed to pursuing this goal. Therefore, Netanyahu will need to work in sync with Trump to achieve a favorable outcome for Israel that avoids unnecessary concessions.
Netanyahu will also need to appoint a new ambassador to Washington shortly. Rather than extending Mike Herzog’s term, he’s expected to select a new representative. While Netanyahu would prefer Ron Dermer, Dermer has declined to return. Ophir Falk, one of Netanyahu’s political advisors, is reportedly among the potential candidates for the role.
A major point of interest for Israel is who will join Trump’s close circle. Israel is hopeful that figures like Mike Pompeo, as defense secretary, and David Friedman, a staunch supporter of Israeli settlements, will have key roles. Friedman has advocated for Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank, and Trump’s victory renews hope among right-wing Israelis for this outcome.
A Republican administration might also advance efforts toward normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It’s unlikely Biden will secure a normalization deal in his last two months, as it would require a cease-fire — something Netanyahu is more likely to pursue under Trump’s leadership.
Another significant issue is Iran. If Iran were to launch an attack against Israel, it risks provoking a strong reaction from Biden, who may be less restrained now that his term is ending. However, Iran might avoid escalating tensions as Trump’s inauguration approaches, given Trump’s historically aggressive stance on Iran. Either way, Trump’s win will influence Iran’s choices, as they weigh the potential risks and benefits.
Furthermore, Trump’s victory might decrease the odds of the International Criminal Court (ICC) issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Biden previously lifted sanctions on the ICC, but Trump could threaten to reinstate these measures, which would likely protect Israeli leaders from international legal actions.
{Matzav.com}