The Congressional Research Service (CRS) has released a sobering new analysis revealing that North Korea may now possess enough fissile material to construct up to 90 nuclear warheads — a sharp rise from previous estimates of 20 to 60 warheads just a year ago.
According to CRS, Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile development continues to advance in defiance of United Nations Security Council sanctions and repeated international diplomatic overtures. “North Korea continues to advance its nuclear weapons and missile programs despite UN Security Council sanctions and high-level diplomatic efforts. The country’s ballistic missile testing, military parades, and policy statements suggest that North Korea is continuing to build a nuclear warfighting capability designed to evade regional ballistic missile defenses,” CRS warned in the report.
The report raises alarm over the apparent failure of traditional deterrence measures — including sanctions and joint U.S.–South Korean military drills — to curb North Korea’s drive to produce weapons-grade plutonium and enriched uranium at scale.
Evidence suggests that not only has Pyongyang upgraded its primary enrichment facility at Yongbyon, but it has also brought a second centrifuge complex online at Kangson. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi highlighted the emergence of this secondary site during a speech in Washington this April at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“It has spawned exponentially. The program is no longer, you know, the complex at Yongbyon. It’s Kangson. It’s other places also in the country,” Grossi explained.
He elaborated on the extent of the activity: “It’s a light water reactor. It’s a second and perhaps a third enrichment facility being built at the moment. It’s a reprocessing campaign, which is ongoing as we speak. And there’s, you know, a nuclear arsenal that exists.”
Grossi described the growth of North Korea’s nuclear program as “completely off the charts,” advocating for renewed diplomatic engagement. He referenced President Donald Trump’s outreach to Kim Jong-un as an example of a more effective path, despite that initiative being cut short by the 2020 election outcome. Grossi maintained that Trump’s direction was preferable to the stagnant sanctions approach.
Because North Korea remains so secretive, determining the exact amount of its fissile stockpile or how quickly it could convert that material into usable nuclear weapons is a challenge. However, the CRS report referenced estimates that North Korea has already built about 50 warheads and possesses enough nuclear material to produce approximately 40 more. It also cited a Department of Defense assessment warning that North Korea “is now postured to conduct a seventh nuclear test at a time of its choosing.”
One of the most pressing concerns is whether North Korea has achieved the ability to miniaturize nuclear weapons for deployment on long-range missiles. Kim Jong-un asserted in 2021 that his regime had succeeded in efforts to “miniaturize, lighten and standardize nuclear weapons and to make them tactical ones.”
While this statement points more toward battlefield or short-range use than full intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the CRS cautioned that North Korea is rapidly closing in on that capability and is devoting significant resources to perfecting missile delivery systems.
“North Korea has been improving its ability to strike the continental United States with an ICBM through a series of tests, first in 2017, then in 2022, four times in 2023, and most recently in October 2024,” the report noted.
“North Korea has committed to expanding the performance of its precision guided tactical weapons, which can pose significant threats to South Korea and U.S. assets on the peninsula,” CRS added.
The report also warned of deepening military ties between Pyongyang and Moscow. Analysts believe North Korea may receive missile technology from Russia as a form of compensation for supplying troops and equipment to support the war effort in Ukraine. The head of U.S. forces stationed in South Korea told lawmakers in April that Russian assistance could lead to major “advancements” in North Korea’s weapons programs within the next three to five years.
Finally, CRS pointed to another troubling trend: North Korea is actively training its military in the operational use of nuclear weapons, indicating a shift toward readiness and execution rather than mere deterrence. This suggests Pyongyang wants to demonstrate to the United States and South Korea that any preemptive strike would fail to neutralize its nuclear capabilities.
“North Korean missile tests have demonstrated growing success and, coupled with increased operational training exercises, suggest a pattern designed to strengthen the credibility of North Korea’s regional nuclear deterrent strategy,” the report concluded.
{Matzav.com}