President Trump is reportedly holding off on greenlighting a military strike on Iran due to fears that such an action could spiral into a destabilizing repeat of the Libyan crisis, sources close to his administration told The NY Post. Trump is said to be pausing his decision for as long as two weeks.
According to three individuals familiar with internal White House discussions, Trump has specifically cited the 2011 downfall of Muammar Gaddafi — and the chaos that followed — as a cautionary tale. Gaddafi’s removal after a NATO-led campaign resulted in prolonged civil unrest and power vacuums across Libya.
One source involved in the administration’s talks said, “Trump doesn’t want it to turn into Libya,” in reference to the deliberations over whether the U.S. should join Israel’s current bombing campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear program.
During a Thursday press briefing, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that Trump was taking time to weigh his options carefully, explaining that his hesitation was due in part to “the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future.”
Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi is expected to meet with his European counterparts — representing the UK, France, Germany, and the EU — in Geneva on Friday to discuss the ongoing crisis. Leavitt clarified that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff would not be attending the summit but emphasized that he remains in active contact with the Iranians.
One individual with direct access to Trump said they personally heard the president mention concerns about Iran descending into a Libya-style collapse even before Israel launched its opening salvo against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Other administration-linked sources said they were briefed by people who had heard Trump draw parallels not only to Libya but also to Afghanistan and Iraq — two other U.S.-involved conflicts that resulted in prolonged instability.
A fifth person, who did not hear Trump’s comments firsthand, but was debriefed on his internal considerations, said the president was leaning toward authorizing precise bombing raids focused on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure — particularly at the deeply buried sites of Fordow and Natanz — using 30,000-pound “bunker buster” ordnance that Israeli aircraft are not equipped to carry.
“Libya was a much more extended kind of bombing commitment, and it ended up being regime change,” that source said.
“If the regime falls [in Iran], then it’s not on Trump, because that’s not the goal of his very limited strike.”
That person added that one of the main worries is whether a post-Khamenei Iran could end up in even worse hands, stating, “we get somebody worse than Khamenei.”
“As far as President Trump goes, he’s not going to get in the business of who runs Iran, that’s very salable to his base,” the source said.
A separate insider close to the White House noted that even if a successful U.S. strike were to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities, it would still raise the challenge of dealing with Tehran’s retaliation — which could include terrorism or environmental fallout.
“He’d rather have a deal,” the source told The NY Post.
“There are two reasons Trump talks about Libya: the first is the chaos after what we did to Gaddafi. The second is the Libya intervention made it more difficult to negotiate deals with countries like North Korea and Iran,” said the source who heard the president directly mention the comparison.
In sharp contrast to Trump’s hesitations, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz was explicit in his call for Khamenei’s removal, branding the Iranian leader “the modern Hitler” on Thursday.
“The IDF has been instructed and knows that to achieve all the objectives, without question this man should no longer continue to exist,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said.
That same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made clear that Trump’s involvement in the conflict was entirely optional, while also asserting that Israel’s military was capable of finishing the job without relying on American “bunker buster” munitions.
“We will achieve all our objectives and hit all of their nuclear facilities. We have the capability to do that,” Netanyahu said when asked by a reporter about the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant hidden half a mile under a mountain.
After Israel’s preemptive assault on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure last week, several military analysts expressed skepticism that Israel could successfully destroy the Fordow site, given its fortified underground location.
Even with American-supplied 2,000-pound bombs, Israeli airpower had been considered insufficient to breach that level of protection.
The Middle East has seen numerous civil wars in recent decades — in places like Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan — many of which involved U.S. military intervention. But Trump has consistently pointed to Libya when discussing the dangers of regime change.
Muammar Gaddafi ruled Libya for over four decades before he was deposed by insurgents supported by the Obama administration. He had previously agreed to abandon a nuclear weapons program in 2003.
Khamenei, similarly, has been at the helm of Iran for decades — serving 35 years as supreme leader, following nearly a decade as president during the reign of his predecessor, Ayatollah Khomeini.
Libya’s collapse shattered hopes of democracy and instead ushered in a brutal era of chaos. Warlords battled for power, extremist groups like ISIS spread terror, and public executions were filmed on beaches. The absence of central authority decimated oil production and turned Libya into a gateway for desperate migrants risking their lives to reach Europe.
At Thursday’s White House briefing, Leavitt emphasized that the president was hearing from a broad array of voices — both at home and abroad — before making any military decisions.
“Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” she said, relaying Trump’s official message.
When asked about regime change, Leavitt responded, “the president’s top priority right now is to ensure that Iran can not attain a nuclear weapon and providing peace and stability to the Middle East.”
{Matzav.com}