Most polls in critical swing states show Vice President Kamala Harris leading in the areas that will be key to determining the election outcome. However, two polling organizations in southern states are challenging this trend, showing former President Donald Trump with a significant lead, the NY Post reports.
Polling conducted by InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar across seven key states indicates that Trump could be on course to secure 296 electoral votes, implying that Harris may have lost the momentum she once had.
Matt Towery from InsiderAdvantage, based in Georgia, reported that Trump is leading in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, and is trailing by just 0.4% in Georgia.
Towery highlighted that both he and Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar (who covered Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan) ranked among the top three pollsters in the 2016 and 2020 elections due to their methods, which allow them to capture some of the Trump support that other pollsters might miss.
It’s important to note that all of Trump’s leads are narrow and within the margin of error, meaning these states could still swing either way on Election Day.
Towery believes Harris’s campaign is losing steam now that the initial excitement has faded.
“The momentum that we were seeing after the Democratic National Convention has sort of come to an end,” Towery stated.
He also observed that the surge in Democratic enthusiasm following Harris’s replacement of Biden has slowed and is now nearly equal with Republican enthusiasm.
Towery thinks that the outcome of this “turnout election” will be significantly influenced by the upcoming “make or break” presidential debate.
If Trump can present himself in a “realistic” manner, “this could become a real turning point like the Carter-Reagan debate that basically sealed the deal” in 1980, Towery predicted.
Robert Cahaly from South Carolina also agreed on the debate’s significance.
He mentioned that Trump might say something that could “overshadow” the rest of the debate, but he added that Harris has “the most to lose” and is in a “no-win situation.”
Cahaly sees a trend of “conservative Democrats” switching to Trump in greater numbers than those crossing over to support Harris. He also pointed out that Harris’s reluctance to engage in interviews has left the media feeling “ignored” and “angry.”
Despite the positive polling for Trump, Cahaly warned that the “Democratic machine” could potentially narrow the margin by “a point or 2.” Therefore, a small lead in September might not necessarily hold until the final vote.
{Matzav.com}