U.S. President Donald Trump’s abrupt reversal of three years of American policy toward Ukraine has raised concerns China might become emboldened to push its territorial claim on Taiwan, though experts say Beijing is most likely in a wait-and-see mode right now to see how the situation in Europe plays out. In the past two weeks, Trump has falsely claimed Ukraine “should have never started the war,” said Ukraine “may be Russian someday” and questioned the legitimacy of President Volodmyr Zelenskyy’s government, while upending the longstanding American position of isolating Russia over its aggression by beginning direct talks with Moscow and voicing positions sounding remarkably like the Kremlin’s own. Before heading to Washington for talks with Trump on Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would emphasize “you can’t be weak in the face of President Putin.” “It’s not you, it’s not your trademark, it’s not in your interest,” Macron said he would tell Trump. “How can you, then, be credible in the face of China if you’re weak in the face of Putin?” What does Ukraine have to do with Taiwan? Like Moscow’s claim Ukraine is rightfully Russian territory, China claims the self-governing island of Taiwan as its own. Chinese President Xi Jinping has not ruled out taking it by force. Trump on Friday appeared to walk back his earlier comments inaccurately blaming Ukraine for starting the war, but his administration’s overall abrupt shift in policy on the conflict could cause some in Taiwan to question “whether the United States could pull the rug out from underneath them as well,” said Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington. Still, while Beijing is certainly paying close attention to Trump’s comments, it is unlikely to act in haste, he said. “I don’t think Xi Jinping will be so brash as to roll the iron die on the conclusion that just because Trump acted in a certain way concerning Ukraine he would do the same over Taiwan,” Hsiao said. “Trump is too unpredictable.” Daniel Russel, who served in senior positions on the National Security Council and in State Department during the Obama administration, said the shift would strengthen Beijing’s efforts to discredit the U.S. “Beijing’s campaign against Taiwan is built around showing them that U.S. support is unreliable and that Chinese domination is inevitable and Trump has already reinforced this by signaling he’s not locked into support for Taiwan,” said Russel, now vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York. “For China, an America feuding with the West is a weak America,” he said. U.S. allies in Asia might also rethink their reliance on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, Russel said. Trump administration has shifting positions on Taiwan Trump was quite popular in Taiwan when he left office in 2021 and was widely credited with bringing the U.S. and the democratically governed island closer together. By American law, the U.S. is obligated to supply Taiwan with sufficient hardware and technology to fend off invasion from the mainland, but maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would come to Taiwan’s defense. Recently, Trump has been more critical of Taiwan, saying it should pay the U.S. for its military defense. On several occasions, he also has accused Taiwan of taking computer chip manufacturing business away from the U.S. and suggested earlier this month he might impose tariffs on […]