President-elect Donald Trump has reaffirmed his commitment to his campaign promise of a large-scale deportation plan for illegal immigrants, asserting that cost will not deter him.
In his first public remarks since winning the election, Trump emphasized his focus on fortifying the U.S. border, saying it must be “strong and powerful.”
“It’s not a question of a price tag. It’s not – really, we have no choice,” he told NBC News.
However, there are significant questions about the feasibility of such a mass deportation effort, as well as the potential legal and logistical challenges Trump would face in trying to implement it.
Data from the Department of Homeland Security and the Pew Research Center estimates approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants currently residing in the U.S., a number that has remained consistent since 2005. The majority have lived in the country for over a decade.
Undocumented immigrants are entitled to due process, including a court hearing before deportation. Expanding deportations on a massive scale would likely require a substantial increase in the immigration court system, which is already burdened with backlogs.
Most immigrants come into contact with the deportation system not through direct encounters with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents but through local law enforcement. However, many cities and counties across the country have enacted policies limiting their police from cooperating with ICE.
Trump has vowed to act against these “sanctuary cities,” yet America’s mix of local, state, and federal laws complicates the situation. Kathleen Bush-Joseph, a policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), noted that local cooperation with ICE is “critical” for any deportation initiative.
“It’s much easier for ICE to pick someone up from a jail if local law enforcement cooperates, instead of having to go look for them,” she said.
She highlighted a recent example from August, where sheriffs in Florida’s Broward and Palm Beach counties announced they would not deploy deputies to assist with any mass deportation effort.
“There are many others who would not cooperate with a Trump mass deportation plan,” she added, pointing to the difficulty posed by local resistance.
A widespread deportation initiative would also likely prompt immediate legal opposition from immigration and human rights advocates. Yet a 2022 Supreme Court decision restricts courts from halting immigration enforcement, meaning enforcement could proceed even amid ongoing legal battles.
Logistical Challenges
Assuming a Trump administration could proceed legally, substantial logistical barriers remain. Under the Biden administration, deportations have mainly targeted individuals detained at the border, with deportations from within the country focusing primarily on those with criminal backgrounds or national security risks.
Deportations from inside the U.S. – as opposed to those at the border – have stayed below 100,000 annually for the past decade, peaking at over 230,000 during early years of the Obama administration.
“To raise that, in a single year, up to a million would require a massive infusion of resources that likely don’t exist,” explained Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, policy director at the American Immigration Council.
ICE’s current staff of 20,000 agents and support personnel is likely insufficient to locate and apprehend large numbers of undocumented individuals. Mr. Reichlin-Melnick added that even after identifying and arresting someone, the process involves significant steps, including housing detainees, arranging court hearings, and ultimately securing diplomatic cooperation from their home countries.
“In each of those areas, ICE simply does not have the capacity to process millions of people,” he said.
Trump has mentioned the possibility of using the National Guard or military forces to assist in deportations, although historically, the military’s role has been limited to supporting functions at the U.S.-Mexico border.
In a recent interview, Trump suggested he may build new detention facilities and offer immunity to police cooperating in deportations, with potential financial incentives for local authorities.
“We have to do this,” he said. “This is not a sustainable problem for our country.”
Eric Ruark, research director at NumbersUSA, a group advocating for stricter immigration controls, emphasized that interior deportation efforts would only be effective if supported by tighter border security.
“That has to be the priority. You’re going to make very little progress in the interior if that’s not the case,” he said, adding that cracking down on employers of undocumented workers would also be essential.
“They’re coming for jobs,” he said. “And they’re getting those jobs because interior enforcement has basically been dismantled.”
Financial and Political Costs
The cost of deporting millions could reach tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars. ICE’s 2023 budget for transportation and deportation was $420 million, and in that year, ICE deported just over 140,000 individuals.
The plan would also require detaining large numbers of immigrants and potentially expanding the number of removal flights. Some experts suggest that even a minor increase in deportations would come with substantial costs.
“Even a minor change is in the tens of millions, or hundreds of millions,” said Mr. Reichlin-Melnick. “A significant change is in the tens or hundreds of millions.”
Beyond the financial costs, Trump’s proposed actions could lead to difficult political consequences, according to Adam Isacson, a migration and border expert at the Washington Office on Latin America. He pointed out that images of families and children facing separation could be damaging.
“Every community in the U.S. would see people they know and love put on buses,” Mr. Isacson said. “You’d have some very painful images on TV of crying children, and families. All of that is incredibly bad press. It’s family separation, but on steroids.”
Historical Precedents for Mass Deportations
During Trump’s previous term, approximately 1.5 million people were deported. In comparison, the Biden administration has deported around 1.1 million as of early 2024. The Obama administration deported over 3 million people during its two terms, which earned Barack Obama the label of “deporter-in-chief” among some immigration activists.
A comparable event to a large-scale deportation effort occurred in 1954, when about 1.3 million people were deported under “Operation Wetback.” However, historians dispute the exact numbers, and the campaign faced public backlash due to its treatment of Mexican nationals and some U.S. citizens who were mistakenly deported.
Kathleen Bush-Joseph from MPI explained that today’s immigration patterns are different, with many arrivals coming from countries beyond Mexico and Central America.
“Those [deported in the 1950s] were single, Mexican men,” she said. “Now, the vast majority of people coming between ports of entry are from places that are not Mexico, or even northern Central America. It makes it so much harder to return them.”
“These are not comparable situations.”