As Americans head to the polls today, there’s an unusual path to victory that could see Donald Trump winning the presidency even if he loses the Electoral College vote. This scenario hinges on an emerging framework known as the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC), a state-led initiative aimed at ensuring that the presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote ultimately becomes President of the United States. If Trump wins the popular vote but Kamala Harris secures the Electoral College, Republican-led states could, theoretically, adopt the NPVIC in a last-minute bid to keep Trump in office. The U.S. Electoral College has long been a point of contention, especially for its ability to produce a president who didn’t win the popular vote. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes, yet Donald Trump became president by securing the majority of electoral votes. In 2024, the inverse could occur, with some polls showing Trump narrowly leading in the national popular vote but Harris on track to win the Electoral College. Ordinarily, this would mean a victory for Harris, but the NPVIC offers a potential workaround. The NPVIC is a legislative agreement between states that promises to award all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote, not the candidate who wins in that particular state. However, the compact only takes effect once enough states have joined to secure the 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency. Currently, 16 states and Washington, D.C. have joined the compact, representing 205 electoral votes—about 75% of the 270-vote threshold needed for the NPVIC to be effective. If Trump wins the popular vote today but loses the Electoral College, Republican states could theoretically push through legislation to join the NPVIC, retroactively shifting the outcome in Trump’s favor. While this move would be highly controversial, it could prove effective if additional states with a combined 65 electoral votes join the compact, allowing the NPVIC to reach the 270-vote threshold needed to determine the outcome. Such a maneuver would be unprecedented and would likely face numerous legal challenges. Critics argue that adopting the NPVIC after an election may be unconstitutional and could lead to a protracted legal battle in federal courts, and would most likely reach the Supreme Court. But in an election year marked by fierce partisanship, some Republican-led states might still be willing to try. The idea of electing presidents based on the national popular vote has broad support. A 2020 Pew Research Center poll found that 58% of Americans favor replacing the Electoral College with a system based solely on the national popular vote. The NPVIC appeals to those who believe that the will of the people should directly determine the presidency, and its proponents argue that it aligns with the democratic principle of “one person, one vote.” Since Maryland became the first state to adopt the NPVIC in 2007, interest has grown steadily, especially in the wake of close elections. In 2019 alone, four states joined the compact. Should additional states push the NPVIC over the 270-vote mark, it would leave the Electoral College intact in name but functionally bind electors to the national popular vote winner. If Republican states attempt to adopt the NPVIC after today’s election, it would likely trigger […]